Blackjack Card counting techniques 2

cyph

Trusted Member
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Simply stated, multiply all running counts by .2 to get the true count for the first 2Vi decks played. For any running count near the middle of the shoe, about three decks played, multiply all running counts by i3. After 3 Vi decks, multiply by .4, and after 4 decks, multiply by .5. As you get very close to the cutcard, multiply by .6.

Note that multiplying by .5 is the same as cutting a number in half, so a running count of+15 times .5 gets a +7.5 true count. Also, these conversion factors are in tenths, so a running count of +6 times a .4 is not 24, but 2.4, although you still multiply 4 x 6 to get 24, and then instantly make the adjustment by taking 10% of your answer, or moving the decimal point one space to the left.

It cant get any easier than this, as we’ve eliminated all division and all fractions. To work with true counts, you only need to multiply the running count by a few single digit numbers, and most of the time you’re multiplying by 2. Now that you know how conversion factors are derived, you can work them out for any game with any precision desired, such as every quarter-deck, every half-deck, and so on.

All it takes is a few minutes to work out the conversion factors for your games. Round these factors off to simple, single-digit numbers (the game factors), commit a handful to memory, and the rest is easy.

Pivot

Unbalanced counts use a different methodology for taking the number of remaining decks into consideration. Its called a 'pivot'. There is no true count in the traditional sense, hence the primary reason for the popularity of unbalanced counts.

Using a Ten-Count in a single deck, all non-tens are counted as +1 for a total of +36; ten-values are counted as -2 for a total of 16 x -2 = -32. With these systems, the count will always end on +4. This
 

cyph

Trusted Member
imbalance is the pivot. Any count of +4 is considered even, any count of +5 or greater is deemed to be positive. For two or more decks, the pivot is multiplied by the number of decks in play. For example, with six decks, the pivot is 6 x 4 = +24. Any count of +24 is considered even, any count of +25 or greater is deemed to be a positive count, not necessarily a player advantage.

Some players prefer to subtract the pivot to start their count. For single-deck, the count would start at -4; playing six decks, the count would start at -24. In this way, a count of zero is considered even and all plus counts indicate positive remaining compositions, not just those exceeding the pivot.

PLAYING STRATEGY

The playing strategy starts with basic strategy—the best way to play without counting cards. Once we start counting, we can occasionally deviate from basic strategy based on the count for more accurate playing decisions.

For example, if you held 13 versus 3, you would normally stand with your hand playing basic strategy, but what if your count was -10, indicating about ten more small cards on average in the remaining cards? If you don’t hit your 13, you only win when the dealer busts, and that’s not very likely in such a poor deck. Card counters use a specific measurement called a "strategy index" to tell them when the count is high enough, or low enough, to justify deviations from basic strategy.

A 'strategy index' is a positive or negative number, or zero. They tell the player when a deviation in basic strategy is called for. For 16 versus a 9, the index might be +5, which means to play basic strategy (hit) unless the true count equals +5 or greater, then stand. For 11 versus ace in multideck play, the index might be -1, which means to play basic strategy (hit) unless the true count equals -1 or higher, then double down.

In the early days of computer analysis, stategy indices were worked out for virtually every hand versus every dealer’s upcard. There were positive counts when standing with 13 or 14 versus 7 was mathematically correct. There were negative counts when it was mathematically correct to hit 14,15, and 16 against a small card. There were counts when doubling 8 versus 7, or A-9 versus 8, were correct. And there were positive counts when splitting 10-10 against a 2-8 were correct!

In short, early count strategies were frightening in regards to the number of playing indices. On the following page an early strategy table for Reveres APC has been included. There are well over 200 indices! The left index in each box is for single- and double-deck, the right is for four or more decks. Some of the numbers are actually read opposite to the rest of the chart, insurance was taken as a true +3 or higher, and there were more changes, depending on rule variations. Complete memorization of the chart takes serious work!

Take a few minutes to look over the range of strategy deviations. As I’ve said before, it’s all about developing a "feel" for the game, about understanding the scope and limitations of the game. Just knowing, for example, that there are times when it’s correct to make some very unusual plays is a big step in the right direction.
 

cyph

Trusted Member
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The Top Plays

One of the most important developments in the game occurred in 1986, when player and mathematician Don Schlesinger published an article in the September issue of The Blackjack Forum, titled “The Illustrious 18". Building on the research of Arnold Snyder (back in 1981-1982) and Peter Griffin, he discovered that most of the playing strategy indices contributed very little to a winning players edge. Schlesinger looked at the frequency of player hands versus dealer upcards, and the various
 

cyph

Trusted Member
counts requiring strategy changes. He proved that using only 18 indices, versus the traditional 100 to 200+, did virtually all of the work!

Insurance was the most important play, contributing almost one-third of the edge, and this was followed by 16 versus 10, and 15 versus 10. Interestingly, the fourth and fifth most significant contributors were splitting 10-10 versus a 5 or 6, these being the result of more 20s being dealt than any other hand. As you might suspect, there were no soft doubles or pair splits in the top plays. So here they are, the most important plays in the game, and the corresponding indices for the strategy changes using the Hi-Low.

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Take insurance at +3 or greater.
Compare the two strategy tables, they’re like night and day. Based on this research, most players now use the simplified tables, other prefer 40 to 50 indices, and there are still a few who have memorized complete strategy tables, attempting to squeeze out every conceivable edge. Just consider, it only took about 25 years for the game to evolve in this way. Another example of how the games complexities can completely overwhelm the detail and precision that many players shoot for.

BETTING STRATEGIES

After you are comfortable with basic strategy, the count, true count, and the most important plays in the game, what’s left? Betting the money. In most blackjack games, the betting strategy is the most important factor contributing to winning play.

There are an almost unlimited number of betting schemes, many with interesting psychological angles. Here are just a few for you to think about.
 
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