cyph
Trusted Member
Optimal Bet Spread
The players first advantage usually occurs at a true +2 (discussed momentarily). If the player makes his max bet at his first advantage and bets one unit otherwise, his spread is optimal, producing the highest expected win. If he waits for a true +3 to make his max bet, his win rate goes down slightly since he has missed the opportunity to make money at all true counts of +2. The longer he waits to reach his maximum bet, the smaller the win rate. If an optimal 1-4 bet spread is not profitable, there is no other way to spread 1-4 units that will win.
Optimal bet spreads are a good, logical reference point for beginning a player evaluation.
Graduated Bet Spread
Optimal bet spreads are obviously transparent, so most players opt for a graduated bet spread. Betting 1-2-3,1-3-5,1-2-4-8,1-2-4-8-16, or 1-2-4-8/8 (two hands of eight units each) are just a few possible schemes. The first bet increase may start at even (no advantage for either side), although a more conservative player may wait for the first player advantage to start moving his money. As with optimal bet spreads, the faster one moves his money, the better in terms of expected win.
A mnemonic guideline is often used with these spreads. A team may bet the true count in color. If black is the betting unit size, they bet $300 at true +3 and $800 at true +8, with certain guidelines for minimum and maximum bets. They may also bet the true count in units. If $50 is the unit size, they bet $150 at true +3 and $400 at true -1-8.
With optimal bet spreads and graduated bet spreads, its quickly apparent that not all 1-8 bet spreads are the same, in terms of win rates, nor are all 1-6,1-4 spreads, and so on. The only similarities with many spreads are the minimum and maximum bets. You'll often hear a boss say, "He's spreading; from one to eight units," and leave it at that. Unfortunately, this is a weak description of the play. There are other qualifications to consider. Is the bet spread optimal? When is the first bet increase? How fast does the player get to his top bet? Is there any cover in the spread? Some 1-8 bet spreads may realize an advantage while other 1-8 spreads will not. This can happen if the player waits too lone* to move his money, or adds too much cover.
Parlay
Even graduated bet spreads can be transparent, so the better players are forced to mix it up. A common aproach is to limit all bet increases to only those hands following a win. II the player loses and the count goes sky-high, the same bet is made foregoing the favorable opportunity. The goal is to create the illusion that a bet increase is linked to wins and losses, and not the count. This approach obviously misses a fair amount of betting opportunities, however, many players will give up maximum win rates
The players first advantage usually occurs at a true +2 (discussed momentarily). If the player makes his max bet at his first advantage and bets one unit otherwise, his spread is optimal, producing the highest expected win. If he waits for a true +3 to make his max bet, his win rate goes down slightly since he has missed the opportunity to make money at all true counts of +2. The longer he waits to reach his maximum bet, the smaller the win rate. If an optimal 1-4 bet spread is not profitable, there is no other way to spread 1-4 units that will win.
Optimal bet spreads are a good, logical reference point for beginning a player evaluation.
Graduated Bet Spread
Optimal bet spreads are obviously transparent, so most players opt for a graduated bet spread. Betting 1-2-3,1-3-5,1-2-4-8,1-2-4-8-16, or 1-2-4-8/8 (two hands of eight units each) are just a few possible schemes. The first bet increase may start at even (no advantage for either side), although a more conservative player may wait for the first player advantage to start moving his money. As with optimal bet spreads, the faster one moves his money, the better in terms of expected win.
A mnemonic guideline is often used with these spreads. A team may bet the true count in color. If black is the betting unit size, they bet $300 at true +3 and $800 at true +8, with certain guidelines for minimum and maximum bets. They may also bet the true count in units. If $50 is the unit size, they bet $150 at true +3 and $400 at true -1-8.
With optimal bet spreads and graduated bet spreads, its quickly apparent that not all 1-8 bet spreads are the same, in terms of win rates, nor are all 1-6,1-4 spreads, and so on. The only similarities with many spreads are the minimum and maximum bets. You'll often hear a boss say, "He's spreading; from one to eight units," and leave it at that. Unfortunately, this is a weak description of the play. There are other qualifications to consider. Is the bet spread optimal? When is the first bet increase? How fast does the player get to his top bet? Is there any cover in the spread? Some 1-8 bet spreads may realize an advantage while other 1-8 spreads will not. This can happen if the player waits too lone* to move his money, or adds too much cover.
Parlay
Even graduated bet spreads can be transparent, so the better players are forced to mix it up. A common aproach is to limit all bet increases to only those hands following a win. II the player loses and the count goes sky-high, the same bet is made foregoing the favorable opportunity. The goal is to create the illusion that a bet increase is linked to wins and losses, and not the count. This approach obviously misses a fair amount of betting opportunities, however, many players will give up maximum win rates